It's time for one of my favourite things to post about: predictions! The brackets for WCS Winter are set so there's plenty of time to look into the Aligulac machine and see if it (and I) can carry forward our high prediction accuracy into LOTV (68% and 67% respectively last year; Aligulac did better in the early rounds, I did better in later rounds). A few things to note: eight of the players were invited via their WCS points from 2015 (I've noted them with an (i)), while both Petraeus and JonSnow couldn't attend due to school, while VortiX has pulled out due to personal reasons (their replacements are noted with an (r)) [TL has posted a preview where it ranks all the players, but no predictions yet]:
Polt (i) vs Lambo - the question that always comes up when a Korean plays a foreigner is how much of a chance does the latter have? Aligulac favours Captain America (78%) and he won the only match the two have played before (granting that was the summer of 2013); Polt's last loss to a foreign Zerg was to Petraeus in August, but he hasn't lost a meaningful best-of-five since the days of Broodlord/Infestor in WOL; Lambo has one career win over a Korean Terran (beating Heart in the LOTV beta), but I see no hope for the German
PtitDrogo vs Dayshi - the French Protoss player is given the edge (59%), although the Terran player has a dominating historical record against his opponent (11-4, with none of those games in LOTV); Dayshi is roughly 50-50 against Protoss players, while PtitDrogo was perfect until the Adept/Mothership Core nerf (he's lost both matches since); while this could be very close, I'll stick with the odds
Serral vs FireCake - the Finn is heavily favoured (70%), with a good historical score against his French opponent (6-3) including beating him the only time they've met in LOTV; there's really nothing in FireCake's background that suggests he'll take this series
Bunny (i) vs Has (i) - the Danish Terran is a massive favourite (77%), although until recently he was struggling in the match-up; the Taiwanese Protoss doesn't play Terrans very often and his track record isn't impressive (it doesn't help that everyone knows he's going to cheese every game), so I agree with Aligulac
MaNa (i) vs PiLiPiLi (r) - interestingly enough, Aligulac gives the NA player the edge (58%), largely based on the stats from regional play (the two have never played against each other); despite the Polish player's middling results in PvP of late, he has a much more impressive track record so I'll take the "upset" here
HuK (r) vs PiG -the Canadian Protoss player is heavily favoured (69%), with an excellent record against his opponent (7-2); while I don't think HuK has been a top foreigner in quite some time, PiG's record against decent Protoss players is quite bad (against other top NA Protoss he's 0-2, although State is arguably better than HuK right now--PiLiPiLi seems a reasonable comparison however); as for the Canuck's PvZ, against decent players he's 8-3 of late, losing to Petraeus, Scarlett, and JonSnow; I'll take the odds
ShoWTimE vs Nerchio - I've enjoyed the return to form by the Polish player, who was going through the motions at the end of HOTS; Aligulac gives the German Protoss a slight edge (55%); his opponent who has beaten him in their past two matches (granting the German won their only BO5 in LOTV); Nerchio hasn't lost a ZvP since dropping a five-game set to Harstem over three weeks ago (he's gone 13-0 since); one thing to note, in the biggest tournaments Nerchio has consistently lost to Protoss players (ShoWTimE and Lilbow at ROCCAT DreamHack, and then Lilbow again at DreamHack Leipzig), but all of those were before the adept/mothership nerf, so I like the upset here
Lilbow (i) vs SortOf - the Swedish Zerg is another player I'm glad to see competing at a high level again, but I (like Aligulac, 64%) see little hope for him here; while Lilbow hasn't set the world on fire in LOTV, his losses in PvZ (with the exception of Zanster) have been to players better than the Swede, so while his stats in the matchup (50%) are less impressive than SortOf's (79%) the only top Protoss the Zerg player has beaten in LOTV is MaNa; I take the odds
puCK vs MarineLorD (i) - the American Protoss is one of those funny players who, every once and awhile, gets hot and can beat just about anyone and he'll need that here as the French Terran is an overwhelming favourite (74%); MarineLorD has been very inconsistent in TvP, but since the last patch he's 5-2; puCK has been very good against NA Terrans (post-patch he's 7-1), but struggles against MajOr (no surprise) and Kelazhur (someone I think is a step below the French Terran); I like the odds here
XiGua vs viOLet - the Korean is an overwhelming favourite (87%), despite being the least impressive of the Koreans in the tourney; there's nothing in the Chinese player's history that suggests any hope in this match-up, as he has a miserable track record against even mediocre Korean Zergs--take the odds
MaSa vs Harstem - while the Year of Harstem never seems to come to fruition, he's still one of the top Protoss players in Europe--despite that he's a massive underdog (39%) against the Canadian Terran, even though MaSa has had no WCS success (he's made Premier four times and been bounced promptly on each occasion); the Canadian has only played NA Protoss players in LOTV and since the patch he's 4-5; Harstem is 3-2 since the change; while this could go either way, I like the Dutch player here
MajOr vs Snute (i) - the Mexican Terran is one of StarCraft's great enigmas; he showed indifferent play in WCS last year, but is fully capable of beating anyone when motivated; the odds favour him (56%) over the Norwegian Zerg, but remember that his raw numbers are inflated by Latin American and NA players; Snute lost the last time they played (in December), but overall has an impressive ZvT percentage (70%); I like the upset here
Happy vs Hydra (i) - the Russian Terran is one of those players whose strength lies in the late game and there's no reason why the Korean will ever let him get there; the Zerg player isn't favoured (64%) as much as I would have expected, granting their map score against each other is even (6-6); Happy beat his opponent in a recent BO3, but he hasn't won a BO5 against a Korean Zerg since Golden in 2014, so I'll stick with the odds
Kelazhur vs Neeb - the NA Protoss player is favoured (55%), with the historical edge against the Brazilian (14-10)--they've played seven times over the last two months with Neeb holding a 6-1 edge; if there's hope for the Terran player it's that his one win is from just a few weeks ago, but I really don't see him winning here
Bly (r) vs Elazer - the Polish player is slightly favoured (53%); they've split their last two series and both are 7-3 in their last 10 ZvZ's against foreigners; this is essentially a statistical dead heat, but I'll take the Ukrainian players experience as the deciding factor
iAsonu vs TLO (i) - last year the German player saved his best play for WCS events and I see no reason why that won't be the case here; he's favoured here (61%) and has a 3-0 lifetime edge against his Chinese opponent; iAsonu generally got his head kicked in by European pros in WCS last year and hasn't beaten a European Zerg in LOTV; the only hope for iAsonu is that TLO is struggling, but while his ZvZ hasn't been out of this world it has been good and he's only losing to top players, so I like the odds here
Aligulac has the following players moving forward: Polt, PtitDrogo, Serral, Bunny, PiLiPiLi, HuK, ShoWTimE, Lilbow, MarineLorD, viOLet, MaSa, MajOr, Hydra, Neeb, Elazer, and TLO. My list is similar, but I have MaNa, Nerchio, Harstem, Bly, and Snute winning their respective sets (I italicized the impacted players above). INcontroL previews the the R32 and keeping in mind Geoff isn't a big fan of statistics (he sites none here), he goes with his gut, but with just one upset (FireCake) as compared to Aligulac's predictions.
Assuming the results above here is the R16 (I address both mine and Aligulac's projected match-ups):
Polt vs PtitDrogo - once again Captain America is heavily favoured (83%), with the two players having no history against each other; the French player actually has a solid record against Koreans historically, and Polt has dropped three series against foreigner Protoss players in LOTV (with no loses to Zergs and just one to Terrans); I feel like the Korean is vulnerable in the match-up, but there isn't evidence (yet) that PtitDrogo has fully adjusted to the balance changes, so I'll stick with the odds
Serral vs Bunny - the Danish Terran is favoured (60%); the Finnish Zerg has struggled against top Terrans in LOTV (1-4, with the win over Dayshi back in early January), while Bunny is 11-3 in TvZ; so while this could go the other way, all the indicators confirm the odds
MaNa vs HuK - the Canadian is given slight odds (53%), and he'll have the advantage of seeing his opponent's strategies in PvP from the R32; MaNa has a worse PvP record in LOTV overall, but HuK has consistently lost to good Protoss players since the balance changes (a win over puCK being the only exception) and he lost the one time he played MaNa (at HomeStory Cup); I think the days of the Canadian making deep runs in tournaments is long over, so take the upset here; if Aligulac is right and this is PiLiPiLi, then he is slightly favoured (58%) despite having lost to the Canadian in their only LOTV match (I'd take the upset if this occurs)
Nerchio vs Lilbow - the Polish player is favoured (59%) and I referenced his ZvP stats above; both players will have played the same match-up coming in, so they'll both have a good idea of what the other will do; Lilbow has beaten Nerchio 2-1 in series in LOTV, but both those wins were pre-patch while the Polish player just beat him in a BO7 a few days ago--I think it's a toss-up, but I'll go with the favourite; if this is ShoWTimE (as Aligulac suggests) the German is favoured (69%) despite having lost to the French player the last time they played (incidentally, that's his only PvP loss to a foreigner in LOTV)--this would be a toss-up in my opinion, but I'd stick with the odds
MarineLorD vs viOLet - interestingly, the French player is heavily favoured (67%), despite his TvZ being hit & miss with good players since December (5-5); when it comes to losing to foreign Terrans the Korean has dropped matches to MajOr and MaSa, but he hasn't been playing EU Terrans in tournaments and I'm not sure him pummeling NA players (and Kelazhur) means much of anything--he's also 0-3 against Polt, but his roommate is simply a better; the two players last met in WCS season two (where they split series); viOLet has never impressed me as a player--each game it's simply a question of whether his early aggression works or doesn't--but LOTV offers him a lot more toys to play with so I'll take that to give him the win
Harstem vs Snute - the Norwegian Zerg is a massive favourite (72%) and is 11-2 since the patch; the Dutch player won his last set against Snute, but that was pre-patch; Harstem has struggled in PvZ lately (2-4), without a win against a top Zerg player in almost a month, so I'll stick with the odds; if this is MaSa vs MajOr (as per Aligulac), he's a slight underdog (45%) and I'd take the Mexican in that instance; MaSa would be slightly favoured (51%) vs Snute, although I think he'd have no chance at all against a player of that caliber; MajOr would be favoured (62%) against Harstem and has a convincing record against the Dutch player, so I agree
Hydra vs Neeb - the Korean is slightly favoured (52%), as the American is buoyed by having won his last three PvZ's against Koreans (including Hydra); the Korean has only lost two series to foreigners in ZvP in LOTV--the aforementioned game against Neeb, as well as a series against MaNa about a month ago; with that said, it's surprising to see the ROOT player nearly lose to HuK and NaNiwa, neither of whom are in Neeb's class; the American was virtually unbeatable in this match-up pre-patch, but has dropped sets to Scarlett and PandaBearMe since; I'd love an upset here, but the safe bet remains the Korean
Bly vs TLO - the Ukrainian is a heavy favourite (61%), despite a terrible historical record against his opponent (8-15); TLO has had mixed results in ZvZ (5-5 recently), but last year his results outside of WCS had no bearing on his performance in the main event and that along with his dominance of Bly makes me take the upset here; if this is Elazer instead he's favoured (64%), although I like the upset again
Aligulac would have Polt, Bunny, PiLiPiLi, ShoWTimE, MarineLorD, MajOr, Hydra, and Elazer moving forward. My opinions are significantly different (as the italics indicate), with MaNa, Nerchio, viOLet, and TLO making it through. Moving forward with my assumptions, here's the R8:
Polt vs Bunny - both Aligulac and I see this as the end of the line for the Danish player, who is the clear underdog (37%); Captain America has lost twice (!) to Kelazhur in TvT, which isn't impressive, but neither match really mattered in the events he was playing in (they weren't elimination matches), so I'm not sure if we should take anything away from them; Bunny is very good in TvT and has beaten Journey and KeeN, but it's hard not to stick with the expected and go with the favourite
MaNa vs Nerchio - a classic match-up and a great one for Katowice; Nerchio is massively favoured
(81%), and while MaNa has struggled mightily in the match-up his opponent hasn't lost a ZvP in almost a month, so I'll stick with the odds; if Aligulac is right then this will be PiLiPiLi vs ShoWTimE with the German as an understandable favourite (73%) and I agree with that
viOLet vs Snute - the first of two epic ZvZ's, the Korean is slightly favoured (51%) with a very distinctive clash of styles (aggressive vs defensive); they are 6-6 lifetime, and viOLet has done poorly against good foreigners (2-4 overall); Snute has been average against top players of late (11-9); I suspect whoever wins will do so convincingly and I like the Norwegian with the upset; Aligulac has this as MarineLorD vs MajOr with the French player favoured (61%) and I agree
Hydra vs TLO - the Korean is massively favoured (76%) and I see no reason to argue; Aligulac has the ROOT player facing Elazer where he's also favoured (64%) and I see no reason to argue
Aligulac has Polt, ShoWTimE, MarineLorD, and Hydra moving forward, while I swap in Snute and Nerchio. Predicting the semi-finals:
Polt vs Nerchio - the Polish player is slightly favoured (51%), with the Korean not having lost a TvZ vs a foreigner in LOTV yet (granting that's just 8 matches); the Polish player has done alright against Korean Terrans (13-10) and there are no surprises in his opponents strategy (MMM with a lot of drops), so it's simply a matter of execution and Nerchio has shown a tendency to choke at large events, so I'll take the "upset"; if Aligulac is right and Captain America faces ShoWTimE, he's heavily favoured (69%), despite a less impressive TvP record vs foreigners (7-3); the German player hasn't played a PvT since the patch change so in the absence of that kind of information I'll stick with the odds
Snute vs Hydra - the ROOT player is favoured (62%) and I see no hope for the Norwegian here; if Aligulac is right the Korean faces MarineLorD here and it's a virtual statistical tie (50% for Hydra); the ROOT player has a few surprising losses in ZvT (Raze stands out), but while the French player is very good in the match-up I think the Korean will move forward
Aligulac has Polt face Hydra in the final and that's where I have them as well--most fans would expect this even without researching it. Aligulac favours (58%) Hydra and he's clearly the better player, although everyone remembers him throwing away a 3-0 lead in WCS season one last year (I don't think there will be a repeat of that here).
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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