Thoughts on the WCS Changes

At long last Blizzard has announced the changes to WCS and there is a ton of information to absorb (TL tries to break it down, as does Stuchiu--I agree with the latter that they way things were disseminated could have been done better).  I was a fan of last year's WCS system (with a couple of minor reservations), but there's no denying that it had problems.  The major change for 2016 is the removal of the dominating structure that's existed throughout HOTS, so no more Challenger and Premier running most weeks of the year.  WCS will still have three championships a year driven by regional qualifiers, but these will occur in much tighter timeframes and rather than the ESL umbrella IEMs etc will run them.  There will be one less GSL/SSL, but more money pumped into those tournaments.  Along with those changes, the attempts to restrict the access of parachuting Koreans have been ramped up.  Korean players now must spend most of their time residing in the region they play in, and they must also play on the local ladder on a monthly basis (100 wins a month under their own ID, so 1,200 over the course of a year).  This won't prevent Hydra et al from dominating most tournaments, but it will mean that he and the other Koreans will be forced to invest more time playing against local players, giving them a chance to improve their play.

While I see the changes as positive, there are those who disagree.  From what I've seen and read these fans are either those only invested in the Korean scene (as ZombieGrub passionately makes clear), or those continuing to express the popular idea that in order to improve players need to be on the Korean ladder (generally you see these two views together).  I'm frankly blown away at how passionate this small group is about the first point, given that it translates to them apparently enjoying mid-tier Koreans destroying foreigners in lopsided events.  These fans show little to no interest in how much devastation parachuting Koreans have caused the foreign scene.  There also seems to be limited understanding of how other leagues have successfully grown their sport/eSport beyond its dominant region or country.  Let's explore both points in a bit more detail:

1. For the first point, while I can understand the disappointment of rarely seeing Koreans at foreign events (it's not mine, but I can empathise--I'd rather watch the GSL/SSL if I'm going to watch Koreans), it's beyond obvious that the foreign scene needs this change.  Despite hearing rhetoric that having Koreans participate in regional scenes can help, the reality is that it's virtually killed NA (and everywhere else that isn't Europe, which has also declined).  There's no evidence that the over-saturated version of WCS (2013-14) encouraged the growth or development of foreign players--instead there were mass retirements and vanishing viewership.  You simply cannot have growth outside of Korea without an existing structure that gets players paid (to give just one example from pro sports, European hockey nations that heavily restricted foreign participation have thrived and become competitive while those that did not remain stagnant).  Given that SC2 is not a team eSport, and SC2 foreign teams that pay are few and far between, there needs to be multiple tournaments where local players have a reasonable chance to make a living--otherwise a true pro scene is impossible.  Interestingly enough, critics worry about the economic fate of mid-tier Koreans without tangibly sharing that same concern for their foreign counterparts--when thinking of the latter suddenly the sentiment becomes the best players should win.  Stuchiu tells us:

Finally there doesn’t seem to be any plans to help low to mid-tier Korean players, so we should probably be getting another wave of retirements again as GSL and SSL continue to be top heavy.

The foreigner narrative in SC2 can never be as strong as it was in the past because of the region-lock. It seems counter-intuitive as there will be more events with foreigner-only events, however in the case of the best foreigners, the book has been closed. The reason is simple. While some people are trying to equate the region locked 2016 tournament circuit to the 2011/2012 circuit, that is simply disingenuous as it ignores one simple facet. Almost all of the LANs from 2011-2015 weren’t region-locked so foreigners could play against the best and prove they could beat the best..

This is one of those 'it's true but misses the point' statements--and trying to cram in the Korea/foreign situation from HOTS to that of WOL is absurd.  He knows full well that Korean participation in WOL was limited and didn't involve the KeSPA players--the foreign scene was also flush with money in the early days so players weren't as dependent on tournament winnings.  There's no attempt to explain why Blizzard needs to protect the livelihoods of the mid-tier Koreans (who may or may not need this protection), but not foreign players.  It smacks of regional bias, but one I think he's unaware of (I assume he believes a healthy scene is one where the money isn't stuck at the top, but this is exactly the problem in the foreign scene, but much more cripplingly so).  It's simply a fact that part-time players will always lose to full-time players and the skill-gap between Koreans and foreigners will only get worse the harder it is for foreigners to become full-time pros.

2. The Korean ladder is one of those funny arguments that's been around forever; let's quote Stuchiu:

The fastest way to improve as a player is to constantly play against better players over and over and Korea has by far the most depth of any server—that’s inarguable. It’s a great tool for anyone to practice on and one of the reasons as to why Koreans are always so sharp. With the lock down, players that had access to such a tool will naturally devolve.

There are two problems with this argument (which apparently is "inarguable"): 1) unless Stuchiu believes regions should settle on only playing on the Korean ladder, Blizzard's plan is the best way to improve and develop local ladders (he doesn't propose a way for foreign ladders improve); 2) our only evidence actually indicates the reverse of this argument: the best foreigners play in Europe, where the ping to Korea is unplayable (the benefit of both an insular ladder and a financed scene seems to allude him).  Rather than Europeans going to Korea and becoming the best, instead you see Europeans go to Korea when they are already the best.  Pros echo his sentiment, so I think it's one of those "facts" that's repeated so often that no one actually questions it anymore (you see this in professional sports as well, until enough evidence accrues to challenge it).  To me it's evident that targeted practice with good players (which you see within Korea), along with having no other obligations (school, work) is a big part of what develops the best players (the latter is one of the reasons you see older pros past their prime still do okay in the foreign scene).  That said, I don't expect many people to reject Stuchiu's point, as it's become almost an article of faith in the community.

Maybe Stuchiu (and others) have constructive arguments and plans, but all I've seen thus far are emotional reactions expressing a lot of fear for the Korean scene.  Time will tell if the current approach is right, as there's no guarantee that what Blizzard is doing is going to work, but it's clearly a move in the right direction (viewership numbers recovered slightly in 2015 with most of the Koreans pushed out; 2016 will now give foreigners outside of Europe a chance to get paid).  I've seen no alternatives proposed that doesn't essentially give us the same system we're leaving (which everyone acknowledges doesn't work).  StarCraft needs to grow if it wants to survive as an eSport.  None of this is going to make those disappointed by the changes any happier and I'm sure we'll hear their voices all year long about it, but if there were enough fans who shared their sentiments SC2 wouldn't be struggling the way it is.  I'll give Destiny the final word here:

People keep mixing this up. Blizzcon/WCS is supposed to produce the best player in the world, HOWEVER, the top 16 players are not supposed to be the 16 best players in the world, they're supposed to represent the regions they came from. There's a huge difference.  For a lot of people, it's more fun than watching 16 Koreans they don't care about.

With a rhetorical add:

College football players are nowhere near as good as NFL, so no one would ever watch them play, right?

This is similar to what iNcontroL and others have said as well.  All-in-all I'm looking forward to seeing how the new system works out.  One final little aside: these changes should be a boon to the Olimoleague, as top Koreans will have more time and incentive to play in it; this should create space for other smaller Korean tournaments as well.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)