Groups E & F have wrapped up with both Aligulac and TL at 3-1 and myself at 2-2 (at last I have taken to heart that MajOr just can't get it done in WCS once he's in studio). Snute losing was the biggest upset (particularly being the first eliminated), but it was surprising that both of last season's finalists (Hydra and Polt) lost a match (the former to Lilbow and the latter to TLO). Despite the upsets, the final results are not particularly surprising. Speaking of predictions, TL did well with the SSL, although sadly provided no prognostication for Group D in Code S [subsequently found where they were 1-1]. Moving on: here are the predictions for the final groups in the R32 (with stats via Aligulac):
Group G
MaNa vs iaguz - I'm a fan of the Gimli Terran, who despite the odds (68%) has actually beaten the Polish player every time (3-0, but those games go back to WOL); while the Aussie's TvP numbers are good overall, against European Protoss' he's only 2-4 this year; on the other side MaNa is 14-1 in the match-up lately (somehow losing to frozz) and I expect him to win here
MaSa vs FireCake - can the Canadian do the scene a favour and beat his Zerg opponent? The odds say yes (59%); MaSa is 22-1 in TvZ, albeit largely against weaker NA players (practicing against Hydra must help, surely); the French player hasn't had many series against Terrans recently, but he's 6-1, only losing to Happy (who he's also beaten, along with MarineLorD); I think it could go either way, but I'd like to think the talented MaSa is due for WCS success and I'll stick with the odds
Losers
FireCake vs iaguz - once again the French player is the underdog (53%); this is definitely iaguz's comfort zone (TvZ) and much like MaSa he's compiled an incredible record largely based on SEA/NA opponents (12-0); one of iaguz's flaws is predictability (so losing his second series against MacSed last season, or how he lost to NesTea in season two of Challenger in 2014); but this is a BO3 and he'll have the benefit of seeing how FireCake plays the match-up in the previous series, so I'll stick with the Aussie
Winners
MaNa vs MaSa - the Polish player is favoured (58%), even though MaSa's TvP record is absurdly good (54-11, built off the NA scene); I think MaNa's more impressive track record and better available practice partners solidify sticking with the odds
Finals
MaSa vs iaguz - the ROOT team-kill favours the Canadian (68%), although their score against each other is close (6-5 in games, 2-1 in series, all played in the last two months); MaSa is better in the match-up and I expect him to win here. If this is MaNa instead the odds are above and I think we'll see a repeat victory (particularly if ROOT performance against Protoss can be gauged by Hydra and Kelazhur)
Aligulac and I have MaNa and MaSa moving forward (TL has the Polish player and FireCake).
Group H
GunGFuBanDa vs Has - the German is favoured (68%) against the wily Taiwanese player and he has a ridiculous PvP record of late (17-0); Has doesn't have the same kind of statistics to back him up (he hasn't played a PvP series since season one), but his unpredictable style makes him very dangerous; still, I'll stick with the odds here even though I'd love to see Has play Jaedong again (despite being a massive underdog; I think he has a good chance against the Tyrant)
Jaedong vs elfi - not surprisingly the Korean is favoured (67%) and over the years has had a lot of exposure to the Finn's play style; elfi is 1-8 vs Korean Zergs in HOTS (only beating Golden) and I see no hope for him here
Losers
Has vs elfi - the Finn is favoured (56%), but his recent PvP numbers are based off lesser European players and while both players are incredibly cheesy I think Has is the stronger player
Winners
GunGFuBanDa vs Jaedong - once again the Korean is favoured (63%); the German is 4-6 against Korean Zergs of late, granting his wins aren't against players of Jaedong's calibre; that said, he consistently takes games off Korean Zergs so an upset is possible, but with the Tyrant 11-0 against foreign Protoss of late I have to stick with him
Finals
Has vs GunGFuBanDa - the odds are above, but I think the re-match favours the loser, so I have Has moving forward; if this is elfi, the German is favoured and I think would comfortably win despite the Finn's record against him (3-1)
Aligulac has Jaedong and GunGFuBanDa going forward (TL agrees), while instead of the German I have Has moving on. This is potentially a very entertaining group to watch and I hope that Has does get to play Jaedong (check out their match from last year).
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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