Aligulac (and I) were 3-1 over the weekend (TL was 2-2; speaking of TL, they continue their odd struggles in predicting the R16 in the GSL). Ret surprised the odds by making it to the R16 for the first time since season two in 2013. The Dutch player had never won a series against a Korean Zerg in HOTs (0-5), and was just 1-13 against Koreans over the last year and a half. The other surprise was the defeat of the first Korean in WCS, viOLet. Along with StarDust, viOLet was the most beatable Korean in the system, but while the former MYI Protoss survived the previous weekend, viOLet failed for the second time in a row--this time he wasn't sick and he'd just returned from Korea, so there really are no excuses. I suspect he's doing some serious soul searching at this point; he's still good enough to get to the R32 each season, but is that enough for him? Putting last week aside, let's look into the Aligulac crystal ball for the first two groups of the week:
Group E
Lilbow vs Kelazhur - the French player is heavily favoured (71%), and if there's one kind of quality practice the Brazilian isn't getting in either the ROOT house or Copa America it's TvP; Lilbow is 9-2 in the match-up of late, while Kelazhur is 7-1 (granted, against weaker competition); I'll stick with the odds
Hydra vs Snute - potentially one of the best matches in the R32, the Korean is favoured (59%) and is 4-1 against the Norwegian; there is hope for an upset, as while Hydra used to be unbeatable against foreigners in this match-up, he's lost three times in the past month (to Petraeus, TargA, and PandaBearMe (!)); Snute's overall track record against Korean Zergs is quite good (24-29), but he's only 2-9 lately (including two losses to Hydra); given the latter fact, I'll stick with the odds
Losers
Snute vs Kelazhur - not surprisingly the Norwegian is favoured (61%) and beat the Brazilian in their only meeting (2-0 back in March); Kelazhur is 12-1 in the match-up of late, while Snute is 6-6, but three of those losses are to Bunny (the others are to MarineLord, Happy, and Beastqt)--so only the best beat him in ZvT--I don't think the Brazilian is quite in that category yet, so the odds seem on target
Winners
Hydra vs Lilbow - surprisingly the Korean is only a slight favourite (52%); the French player is a very respectable 9-11 in series against Korean Zergs, but that includes two losses to Hydra (both back when he wasn't losing to foreigners); speaking of not losing, Hydra still hasn't lost a series to a foreign Protoss (29-0!) and hasn't dropped a map since GungFuBanDa in early March--the odds make this look much closer than it should be
Finals
Snute vs Lilbow - the French player is favoured (54%), and is 10-0 in PvZ series of late; he also beat Snute in the last days of swarmhosts in early March (he's 9-8 against him historically); Snute is 9-3 in the match-up recently (losing to Harstem, PtitDrogo, and ShoWTimE)--who to pick? The Norwegian has the bigger name and surely must be the default for most--I'll stick with the better known quantity
Aligulac has Hydra and Lilbow going forward, while I take Snute over the French Protoss player (TL agrees).
Group F
Elazer vs MajOr - the Mexican player is the favourite (72%); he hasn't played a lot lately (and losing to ZhuGeLiang is worrisome), but he's historically very good in TvZ and the Polish player's record against good Terrans is not great, so I'll stick with the odds
Polt vs TLO - the Korean is heavily favoured (74%) and other than losing to Kane back in January he hasn't lost to a foreign Zerg since June of 2014; it's been almost as long since TLO beat a Korean Terran (taking out Supernova last July), so there's nothing to suggest the odds are wrong--it's worth noting the German was also a huge underdog against Nerchio and beat him, but Polt is in a different category
Losers
Elazer vs TLO - the German is favoured (60%), although both have a similar, middling records in ZvZ; the difference is TLO loses to well-known players while Elazer can still fall to lesser known Europeans (Guru. Revolution, Revolver, etc), so I like the odds here
Winners
Polt vs MajOr - the Korean is favoured (60%) despite his opponent holding a slightly better head-to-head record (11-10); MajOr has actually beat Polt the last three times they've played (most recently at IEM in February), which puts doubt into the latter's excellent TvT record against foreigners (11-1); were it any Korean Terran other than Polt this would be an automatic decision for me, but I like the upset here
Finals
Polt vs TLO - see above, and I don't think the loser beating the winner (as is often the case in WCS in re-matches) will occur here; if this is MajOr instead of Polt he's favoured (67%), with a 4-1 record against the German
Aligulac and I both have Polt and MajOr moving forward (TL has TLO instead of MajOr).
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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