Aligulac was a perfect 4-0 in the first two groups (3-1 for me and TL), as Kane bowed out in Group A (Bunny said "he's been a bit lazy lately"), and StarDust was able to overcome an initial loss to TooDming to make it through. Looking forward, each of the following groups includes a largely unknown player (Mystery and NXZ), so let's look into the Aligulac crystal ball and see what's in store (I'll note TL's predictions whenever they get posted):
Group C
Mystery vs Ret - the Zerg is a massive favourite (81%); the Chinese player's PvZ is not impressive, while Ret has done well against mid-level Europeans (besides losing to Deathmask), so the odds seem on target
viOLet vs MarineLord - the French Terran is favoured (57%) and has a winning record against the Korean (3-1, granted that was over a year ago); viOLet's ZvT is all over the place, but he's hardly been playing of late so it's hard to know what to make of it; MarineLord's TvZ has been a mixed bag as well, so I see this as a coin toss--I'd like to think the Frenchman is trending upwards while the Korean is slowly spiralling down, so I'll stick with the odds
Losers
Mystery vs viOLet - the Korean is a huge favourite (84%) and I see no reason to argue; if this is MarineLord he's just as favoured (84%)
Winners
Ret vs MarineLord - the Terran is heavily favoured (73%), and while Ret has been quite good in ZvT of late, I don't think his opponents measure up to MarineLord; if this is viOLet instead see the odds below
Finals
Ret vs viOLet - once again the Korean is favoured (69%) and Ret's ZvZ is not impressive, so there's no reason to argue; if this is MarineLord, see the odds above
Both Aligulac and I see MarineLord and viOLet going forward (TL picks the Korean and Mystery).
Group D
iAsonu vs Xenocider - the Chinese player is a slight favourite (55%), despite not having played a series against a Terran since January; however, Xenocider's TvZ has been pretty bad the last couple of months so I'll stick with the odds
Harstem vs NXZ - not surprisingly the popular Dutch player is heavily favoured (73%); Harstem's PvZ has been excellent of late while NXZ has struggled with players like Blysk, so the odds seem spot on
Losers
Xenocider vs NXZ - there's a slight edge (51%) for the American and given how middling both are in the match-up it's tough to call; as the better known player it's hard not to pick Xenocider, however, he's been so bad in matches lately (2-5) that I'll take the upset
Winners
Harstem vs iAsonu - the Dutch player is favoured (66%) and his Chinese opponent hasn't had much luck in ZvP outside his region, so I'll stick with the odds
Finals
iAsonu vs NXZ - the Aussie is given the slightest of edges (50%); NXZ has been good against his fellow SEA Zergs of late (9-1), while iAsonu is 5-0 in the match-up of late--I think the latter scene is stronger so I'll favour the Chinese player; if this is Xenocider instead, re-matches generally go to the loser in WCS (we saw it again with StarDust this past weekend), but Aligulac would stick with the Chinese player
Aligulac and I have Harstem and iAsonu going forward (TL has the Dutch player and Xenocider). It would be great for the SEA region for NXZ to pull off an upset, but it's not something I'm expecting.
Copa America has held its qualifiers for its second season (again, sadly, with no English stream covering it). In the second qualifier Fenix came out of retirement to participate (do SC2 pros ever really retire?), but lost in a qualifying match to BLord.
Qualifiers from the first round were: Cham, XionS, Demonizer, Erik, ReasoN, ByRada, JimRising, and Smile. All the players except Demonizer made it previously (he admittedly had an easy bracket).
Qualifiers from the second round were: BLord, OdiN, Spectrum, Shakti, siNder, Sektor, Akroz, and DominiC. Only BLord and OdiN made it last season.
There are seven new players appearing in the main tournament, with virtually the same racial balance as last season (one less terran, one more protoss). Notably Catz did not play in this season, meaning someone else will get the chance to be obliterated by MajOr or Kelazhur.
Just a quick note on predictions in Korea (which I don't do generally): I was curious what TL's accuracy was, so here's a look (I couldn't find the prediction posts for some of the SSL groups (A and D for season two, D in season one)).
GSL (S1): 20-11
SSL (S1): 8-5
GSL (S2, R32): 12-4
SSL (S2, R16/R8): 1-5
These are interesting numbers. First of all, the GSL predictions are off the charts in places (24-8 in the R32, that's 75%), but how does that mesh with the SSL struggles (9-10), or similar ones within the GSL (3-5 in the R16, 2-2 in the R8)? It's an interesting factoid, as this early round accuracy isn't reflected in either TL's SSL predictions (as noted) nor their WCS picks. Perhaps it's simply a statistical oddity. Regardless, food for thought.
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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