Once again the WCS final was an all-Korean match-up (despite only 4 participating in Premier this season). I think Polt saved the final with his improbable comeback to beat Hydra (the narrative of the ROOT player crushing everyone wouldn't be very engaging). Both ShoWTimE and Bunny made it to the top-four, although the Dane was the only one to muster a challenge to the finalists (the EPS champion was crushed by Hydra). For those interested, TL has posted a brief recap. I enjoyed the tournament (which enjoyed excellent viewership), but it did nothing to change my feeling that the current region lock isn't strong enough--foreigners need a meaningful tournament to play in that is for them alone (a bit like Copa America). That aside, what a great weekend for Polt, who had the most difficult path to the championship and prevailed despite his struggles (I have to wonder how much Hydra's manner hatchery and dancing lings in game four added fuel to Captain America).
I thought it was a great season overall (the casting/analysis this weekend was excellent--even with Kaelaris giggling). Both Blizzard and ESL survived some missteps getting here (particularly in how late the schedule was produced and the initial fail in drawing the groups for R32), but we had some upsets and breakout performances (Kane and ShoWTimE in particular).
Looking forward, I'm curious to see how the swarmhost change will impact players who have heavily relied on them (FireCake most obviously). For Zergs it completely changes both ZvP and ZvT against meching Terrans (granted that other than Strelok and GoOdy, not many pros actually choose mech). I suspect in ZvP muta play will be the choice, returning to the meta of HOTS in 2013 (I'd love to see ling/infestor/ultra, but immortals hard counter the latter so hard I doubt it will happen). Putting the meta aside, PvZ will become vastly more entertaining; if we could only get zealot/archon functioning back in TvP I think HOTS would be as entertaining as it could be prior to LOTV's release.
As for predictions, Aligulac was 3-1 in the R8 (I was 2-2); we were both 1-1 following that and I was correct that Hydra would lose. TL didn't offer predictions beyond the R16, but in terms of Premier predictions overall:
Me 18-13
Aligulac 17-14
TL 14-10
Myself and TL were 58% accurate, while Aligulac was a touch behind at 54%; this is a decrease from the last time I looked at Aligulac's predictive success in WCS.
Racial Balance:
TvZ 13-8
ZvP 11-7
TvP 5-4
Minus Koreans (except viOLet) vs foreigners:
TvZ 6-6
ZvP 9-7
TvP 4-4
There was a slight edge to Zerg against Protoss (which makes sense given we had swarmhosts without the nerf). How about map balance?
Map Scores:
Vaani (34): TvZ 10-5 ZvP 7-3 TvP 5-4
Overgrowth (26): ZvP 8-4 TvZ 5-5 TvP 2-2
Deadwing (22): PvZ 6-4 TvZ 8-0 TvP 2-2
Catallena (22): TvZ 8-5 ZvP 4-2 PvT 2-1
Expedition Lost (18): ZvP 6-3 ZvT 6-1 TvP 2-0
Inferno Pools (4): ZvT 3-0 TvP 1-0
Secret Spring (2): TvZ 1-0 PvT 1-0
Overall (128): TvZ 33-24 ZvP 31-16 TvP 13-11
Removing ForGG, Polt, and Hydra against foreigners from these results (which seems a better way to look at balance--they went 8-1, 11-4, and 13-2 respectively; overall Koreans were 34-12 vs foreigners, losing 3 matches), here are the stats:
Vaani (28): TvZ 6-4 ZvP 6-3 TvP 5-4
Overgrowth (25): ZvP 7-4 TvZ 5-5 TvP 2-2
Deadwing (17): PvZ 5-4 TvZ 4-0 TvP 2-2
Catallena (16): TvZ 6-4 ZvP 2-2 PvT 2-0
Expedition Lost (15): ZvP 5-3 ZvT 4-1 TvP 2-0
Inferno Pools (3): ZvT 3-0
Secret Spring (2): TvZ 1-0 PvT 1-0
Overall (106): TvZ 23-20 ZvP 24-17 PvT 12-11
In terms of map balance, Inferno Pools and Secret Springs weren't played enough to say much about them (RIP to the latter). On the other hand, Deadpool ends its run being overpowered for Terrans vs Zerg, Expedition Lost is the reverse (a bad map for non-Zergs generally), while Vaani is tough on Protoss in PvZ (perhaps less so without broken swarmhosts); nothing is currently weighted heavily to Protoss. Not surprisingly the old maps (Overgrowth, Deadwing, and Catallena) received the bulk of the action along with Vaani. I think we saw Expedition Lost as much as we did only because Inferno and Spring were considered worse.
With the massive overhaul to the map pool (four new additions: Coda, Cactus Valley, Echo, and Iron Fortress) it will be interesting to see how the meta will evolve. If Inferno Pools is removed in favour of Ganymede, the change will be even more massive. Regardless, there's plenty of reason for excitement going into season two (qualifiers begin on April 11th). If you spot any errors or omissions, please let me know!
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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