With four more Groups this week it's time to go back to the Aligulac crystal ball and see who will move on to the Round of 16 (you can see the groups here). Predictions from the first two groups were 2-2. If you spot any errors or omissions, please let me know (I have seen a couple comments on the colour scheme; if your eyes bleed reading it, #SC2passion).
Group C
Bunny vs MajOr - with the power of Pokémon MajOr gets the slight edge (54%) against his Danish opponent; both players have been incredibly dominant in TvT against other foreign Terrans, although MajOr does have a couple of inexplicable losses against CealeR; it's too close to call so I'll stick with Aligulac
viOLet vs MaNa - not surprisingly the Korean gets a significant edge (61%); the days of MaNa being one of the best foreigners are long past, but by the same token viOLet is the least intimidating Korean in Premier; at the end of the day the Korean should win, but an on-form MaNa is certainly capable of upsetting him (despite that, I'll stick with Aligulac)
Losers Match
Winners Match
viOLet vs MajOr - the Mexican is a heavy favourite (66%), although their last 6 series are split down the middle (3-3); viOLet has been vulnerable to foreign Terrans of late (besides losing to MajOr, he's lost to qxc and MaSa), so I'll stick with the odds
Finals
viOLet vs Bunny - the Danish Terran gets the edge (58%), and despite him getting crushed of late by Korean Zergs, I'll stick with him here; if this match follows Aligulac completely then MaNa would again lose to viOLet
Aligulac has MajOr and viOLet moving forward, whereas I have Bunny instead of the Korean player.
Group D
Happy vs PiG - the odds are closer than I expected, but Happy remains the favourite (57%); PiG has a fantastic ZvT record, but those wins have come at the expense of players below Happy's level; the Russian faces a steady diet of European Zergs as good (or better) than PiG and enjoys an impressive record, so there's no need to go outside the odds here
TargA vs Kane - I don't know how much the Canadian's hectic travel schedule will impact his play, but he's a heavy underdog (73%); Kane has had limited success against top Europeans, so I'll stick with the odds
Losers Match
Kane vs PiG - interestingly, PiG is almost as big a favourite (71%) as TargA, but in this case I don't think the difference is justified; I expect it will be close, but I'll give it to the Australian
Winners Match
Happy vs TargA - the Russian gets very slight odds (51%), and while I think Happy is a better overall player, his predictability is something TargA has exploited in the past, so the match is a true coin flip (I will stick with the odds, however)
Finals
PiG vs TargA - the Norwegian is a slight favourite (51%), but I think that's generous to PiG and believe TargA will take the series without too much trouble; if Happy winds up here instead, he should take care of business against PiG again
Both Aligulac and I have Happy and TargA going through.
Group E
ForGG vs Sen - the Korean is an overwhelming favourite (72%), and the last foreign Zergs he's lost too are both retired (VortiX and LiveZerg); Sen did beat Bomber back in August, but from his overall track record that's clearly an anomaly
puCK vs FireCake - the American is a strong favourite (62%); at a guess I think puCK will make a ton of stalkers and FireCake will go swarm hosts, but that aside, the American's PvZ results are inconsistent, but include beating good players, while the French player hasn't beaten a top Protoss since 2013, so I'll stick with the odds
Losers Match
Sen vs FireCake - the Taiwanese Zerg is an overwhelming favourite (78%), although he did lose to Suppy back in June; FireCake doesn't beat top foreign Zergs so I'll stick with Aligulac
Winners Match
ForGG vs puCK - unsurprisingly ForGG is the favourite (86%), as he hasn't lost to a foreign Protoss since Season One back in 2014; the last time the American beat a Korean Terran at ForGG's level was his win over Polt back in 2013, so I it's safe to stick with the odds here
Finals
Sen vs puCK - the American is the underdog (45%), but Sen's fantastic ZvP record is built off the insular Chinese/Taiwanese scene; he also lost to puCK when they last played (almost a year ago); I think the American's inconsistency is likely to rear its head at some point so I'll stick with Aligulac
Both Aligulac and I have ForGG and Sen moving on.
Group F
NaNiwa vs Has - the Swede is the heavy favourite (70%), although we have to keep in mind he's only just returned to competitive play as the vagaries of PvP; Has' results are largely through the insular Chinese/Taiwanese scene, but his loss to HuK back in November adds some credence to the odds which I'll stick with
Serral vs Suppy - the Finn is the favourite (66%), and I'd like to think a full-time player has the edge over a part-time one like Suppy; both players have some puzzling losses in ZvZ, smacking of inconsistency and the difficulties of the mirror matchup, but there's nothing in the background to suggest Aligulac is wrong
Losers Match
Winners Match
Serral vs NaNiwa - the Swede gets the edge (65%) and if NaNiwa wasn't coming off retirement I'd leave it at that; Serral's ZvP is all over the place, but I think his form isn't what's in question, it's his opponent's--with the uncertainty I'll stick with the odds
Finals
Both Aligulac and I have NaNiwa and Serral moving forward.
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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