It has been a long time since my last blog (and yes, I finally realised posting on the main SC thread makes more sense than the moribund SC2 one). I'm back because I'm enjoying the start of the WCS season with all the changes brought about for this year. With that in mind I thought I'd take a look at the results of the qualifiers from this week (you can see some of the VODs here via Basetrade TV).
There were three European and two North American qualifiers this week (along with the only ones for SEA and China), which means 32 of 64 spots in Challenger are now claimed. The European qualifiers have been very Terran heavy (7 of 12), NA has been relatively balanced, the Aussie's Zerg-dominated (as expected, 3 of 4), and China a mix of Zerg and Protoss.
In terms of the quality of the games, my views are coloured by those I had the chance to see, but on the whole the European qualifiers saw a higher quality of play throughout than elsewhere.
NA Qualified
Day One (137 players participated)
Hydra (Z) - the Korean qualified as expected, beating Polt and no one else of note
ViOLet (Z) - another Korean who qualified as expected, knocking out two of the next day's qualifiers (Astrea and MaSa)
Bails (P) - had a fairly easy qualifier, beating players a year or two past their prime (Goswser and ViBE); he's previously been in Challenger
qxc (T) - on his way to taking time off from SC2, he beat Xenocider and puCK to qualify
Day Two (133 players participated)
Kane (Z) - after losing to Azrael (!) on day one, he beat Goswser before pulling off a huge upset over Polt (his reaction is hilarious)
MaSa (T) - knocked out Xenocider and Jon Snow on his way to qualifying
puCK (P) - faced no one of note on his way to qualifying
Astrea (P) - beat out Scarlett and Korean EJK on his way to qualifying
NA had far fewer participants than EU, which is an indication of the relative health of the regions. All the qualifiers are former Premier or Challenger participants. The biggest surprise is Polt failing to qualify twice--losing to Hydra is no big deal, but losing to Kane is a shocker. He still has two shots at making into Challenger and I don't doubt that he will.
Scarlett losing out is also a big surprise, but she skipped day one and undoubtedly will make it through next week. HuK struggled as well, losing to ViBE and Drunkenboi thus far.
Other than Polt and Scarlett (who I think are no-brainers to make it), I'd guess HuK, Xenocider, EJK, and hendralisk will land six of the remaining eight spots (the rest going to someone listed in the previous Premier list below, although a surprise would be welcome). Going by Aligulac's foreigner rankings the qualifiers will be (with the Koreans as given): Polt, EJK, Scarlett, HuK, Guitarcheese, Intense, hendralisk, and Suppy.
Here's the list of other active players (7) who were in Premier previously who have yet to make it: Suppy, ViBE, Minigun, Goswser, desRow, Arium, and Guitarcheese.
EU Qualified
Day One (223 players participated)
Beastyqt (T) - beat DeMuslim, uThermal, MorroW, and Dayshi to qualify
HeroMarine (T) - defeated FireCake, TLO, Petraeus, and Zanster to qualify
Lilbow (P) - beat Krr, MaNa, MarineLord, and Bunny to qualify
ForGG (T) - the only Korean in EU, he beat up on Protoss to qualify (PtitDrogo, BlinG, and Harstem)
Day Two (228 players participated)
PtitDrogo (P) - overcame Zergs Snute (!), Serral, Nerchio, and FireCake; he's a real surprise for me as I'd never heard of him before
Kas (T) - beat GunGFuBanda, Lamboking, and Hanfy (the EPS falls to Ukraine apparently)
Starbuck (Z) - defeated Bly, Welmu, and Happy to qualify
Bunny (T) - knocked out Zanster and MarineLord
Day Three (241 players participated)
TargA (Z) - beating Zergs got him in (Zanster, Snute, and Petraeus)
NaNiwa (P) - off his break he defeated MaNa, Hanfy, and Happy to qualify (with the usual controversy that accompanies him)
uThermal (T) - knocked out Lamboking and Serral
MarineLord (T) - beat sLivko, FireCake, and hOpe to qualify
With the exception of PtitDrogo and MarineLord, all these players have been in Premier or Challenger before (with the latter just missing out in previous seasons), but PtitDrogo is a significant surprise and I hope we get one or two more.
The biggest failure thus far is Snute, who has missed three times in a row (beaten by MorroW, PtitDrogo, and TargA). With three more qualifiers to go (plus the "last chance" round), it's impossible to imagine him not getting in. It's interesting that Snute has lost to all three races, indicating his issue isn't a match-up problem, but perhaps something a bit more fundamental (predictable style perhaps, but not having seen his games I can only guess).
Other notable players: Nerchio has struggled mightily, losing to Dayshi, PtitDrogo, and Miszu (!). DeMuslim has been worse (losing to Beastqt, EasyRu (!), and Hanfy). Then there's TLO, who lost to HeroMarine and twice to Lamboking (EPS power?). Welmu has been knocked out by Zeth, Starbuck, and Snitchables (!). Tefel has also struggled to get very far (perhaps less surprisingly given his repetitive play style). MaNa has performed better than the aforementioned, but still hasn't reached a qualifying match yet--the same can be said of Dayshi.
A number of players have come close to qualifying (Harstem, Zanster, Happy, Petraeus, Hanfy, hOpe, and Serral); the first three I fully expect to make it. With twelve more spots on the line there's plenty of opportunity for others, but there's far more deserving players than spaces so it's going to get increasingly desperate and interesting.
Here's a list of other active players (15) who were in Premier previously who have yet to make it (excluding those grandfathered into season one back in 2013 who fell out immediately): Strelok, KrasS, sLivko, DIMAGA, SortOf, Bly, elfi, FireCake, BlinG, ShoWTimE, NightEnD, Miniraser, Krr, MorroW, and LiveZerg. Their previous success is no indication of their current form however, and most of these players will be on the outside looking in.
Going by Aligulac's foreigner rankings (link above) the qualifiers will be: Snute, Happy, Nerchio, Petraeus, ShoWTimE, MaNa, GunGFuBanDa, Dayshi, Harstem, TLO, Zanster, and Serral.
The SEA qualifiers saw PiG (Z), KingKong (Z), iaguz (T), and EnDerr (Z) making it through (77 players participated); all are previous Challenger or Premier players; on the outside looking in were Blysk and DemiLove. No real surprises here, other than Petraeus being absent because he's playing in the EU region.
In China half of the qualifiers have been determined (with the other half resolved this morning EST): XiGua (Z), iAsonu (Z), MacSed (P), and Clavie (P) have qualified thus far. The first three have all been this far before, but Clavie is a surprise. I'm not familiar with the latter, but it will be interesting to see what he brings to Challenger (it's worth noting he had the easiest bracket to go through). Aligulac rankings would give the remaining slots to Jim, Top, XY, and TooDming. [A brief update: Aligulac was 100% correct.]
If you spot any errors or mistakes, please let me know. Thoughts and opinions are always welcome!
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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