Sunday 13 April 2014

WCS Europe/America Semi-Finals Results with Finals Predictions

The semi-finals produced excellent games and included upsets as Aligulac again struggled with NA predictions (0-2); overall they were 1-3 while I went 2-2 (getting Oz and MMA incorrect).  Happily neither final will be a mirror (PvT and PvZ).  Here's a look at the games (the VODs are here):

WCS Europe

Picon small.png MC 3 Ticon small.png  jjakji 1

Game one (Habitation Station) jjakji went double SCV scout in case of a proxy (which MC did not do), setting up his own proxy third while MC took the gold as his natural; an oracle killed a bunch of marines but MC's second oracle was easily deflected; MC added void rays and gates looking to bust the natural and jjakji lost half his army chasing the oracles out on the map; the Terran held the initial push, but let MC's voids kill off a few buildings uncontested while he re-built his army; MC's next attack could not be stopped and jjakji tapped out.  Game two (Yeonsu) MC went stargate again transitioning into blink, which jjakji scouted and knew was coming; MC lost his oracle to a widow mine before beginning his attack, but jjakji ran his army into a time warp attempting to snipe the mothership core (which failed) and lost a lot of marines; MC added additional oracles for detection as he camped outside the natural; jjakji held the next two attacks despite putting himself into concaves each time; the third push by MC went much better for the Terran as he finally killed off the mothership corp and MC withdrew, throwing down the robo at home; jjakji attacked the natural and MC did not have enough units to hold and tapped out (this was the most entertaining game of the series).  Game three (Frost) jjakji went CC first as MC scouted him last and went into colossus drop; the drop didn't do much damage, but gave MC plenty of time to get blink and set-up a two-base all-in; jjakji scanned a little late as MC arrived with four colossi; jjakji managed to kill off the colossus, but he had already lost his bio army and had to tap out.  Game four (Daedalus Point) MC went for a zealot, stalker, mothership core push, but jjakji had a bunker ready and pushed it back; MC went proxy oracle as he added another stalker and walked the gateway units past the bunker; jjakji pulled back to his main, killing the first oracle, but the next killed most of the marines and while jjakji didn't die immediately MC kept building oracles making the end was inevitable.  It's a funny thing that, even though jjakji knew MC was going to be aggressive, he kept trying greedy builds throughout the series except in the game he won.

Ticon small.png MMA 3 Picon small.png San 2

An excellent series, albeit not with the drama of Oz/Revival.  Game one (Heavy Rain) MMA opened with four reapers (on his way to three-racks); the reapers killed a stalker and five workers, dying in the process as San trapped them in his base; San teched to blink as MMA sent two groups of units to sweep the map; MMA brought both groups in front of the natural which involved armies exchanging units rather than any economic damage; San went double forge and robo bay; a double drop flew over a probe, but San did not notice and got damage done as MMA pressured the front; the aggression made San's third very late (well behind the Terrans); MMA set up a great concave around San's third and the Protoss tapped out after losing his army.  Game two (Frost) MMA delayed San's natural briefly, but got his reaper surrounded and killed; San went for DTs which MMA figured out with a scan; MMA sacrificed marines to kill probes at the natural while blocking out the DTs; a DT drop in the main did a little damage; San went into colossus; MMA dropped the natural, but pulled back as soon as the photon overcharge was triggered; San's harassment at the third didn't accomplish much; MMA prepared for both templar and colossus getting a double starport and ghost academy while getting damage done with a widow mine drop; San was not ready for MMA's army and got steamrolled.  Game three (Habitation Station) San went for the gold base expand behind an oracle; MMA went for a widow mine drop in the main (having scouted the gold), but it didn't accomplish much; San took a quick third (at his natural) with void rays and gateway units as he transitioned into the zealot/archon; MMA went heavy on widow mines; San sent a warp prism into the main which didn't do much as he added a fourth base and teched up to colossus; MMA sent a doom drop into the main which despite having nothing prepared San defended well; MMA harassed the fourth as San attacked the front and crushing the forces there as MMA was not looking at his army and he was forced to tap out.  Game four (Polar Night) San went for DTs as MMA built three-racks; MMA walked his initial units into San's base and they did significant damage; MMA did not figure out the DTs for quite a while, but San assumed he knew and never sent them into the bases (simply killing units out on the map); both players took their third bases; MMA's double drop into the main got stomped (losing all his units), while an attempted snipe of the third was deflected; San pushed out with 2/2 as MMA had massed a ton of vikings, but San decided not to actually attack the third; MMA pulled SCVs with his first ghosts and attacked the third, but San managed to hold after a tense minute of fighting and MMA tapped out.  Game five (Yeonsu) MMA went for an ebay block and used the delay to allow his reaper to kill off the probe trying to plant the nexus; San went for DTs again, using it on the map rather than in the bases; MMA went for a bio push on the natural, but withdrew immediately; San transitioned into templar and storm; MMA sent a double drop into the main, but San saw it coming and he pulled back; San's warp prism harass slightly delayed MMA's third; San moved forward with immortals in his army, but MMA's widow mines kept San from pushing to far; MMA split his army with his drop doing very well, while his other force got crushed by storms; MMA added ghosts to his army as San teched to colossus; MMA attacked with an upgrade and supply advantage and San could not hold him off and tapped out.  As expected this series featured the highest quality of play from both sides.

WCS America

Zicon small.png HyuN 3 Picon small.png Alicia 0

The only one-sided match of the day.  Game one (Habitation Station) Alicia went nexus first as HyuN went two-hatch before pool taking the gold; HyuN snipped the third with roaches and rather than counter attacking after killing off most of the Zerg army Alicia stayed put as HyuN transitioned into mutas; Alicia had enough blink stalkers to push away the initial muta flock and then killed off some of HyuN's army as he pressured the third; Alicia used the warp prism to harass in the main which HyuN took his entire army to kill as Alicia harassed the gold base with stalkers; Alicia stayed out too long with the stalkers, lost many of them retreating and then was overwhelmed as HyuN attacked.  Game two (Frost) Alicia went nexus first again which HyuN scouted early and went up to a quick three bases; Alicia went for blink as he pressured a little with a zealot and stalker while getting a robo and then a third base; HyuN went ling/hydra in response to all he saw as Alicia teched to colossus; warp prism harass was shut down immediately as Alicia flew it right next to creep; Alicia policed his side of the map, killing off creep and maintaining watchtower control; HyuN attacked the third, splitting his army, but Alicia was able to push it away without any economic damage; HyuN added vipers to his army as Alicia took a fourth; HyuN forced a cancel on the fourth, but couldn't kill all three colossus; Alicia had harassed the fourth while the attack went on and HyuN was forced to pull his drones; Alicia attacked the third, but in a terrible position giving HyuN a giant concave--nevertheless killing the fourth with zealots harass while the fight occurred; HyuN rebuilt his army and took another great fight (as Alicia bunched up his army to maximum effect for blinding cloud) killing off all the colossi and the fourth; HyuN's follow up attack was poorly positioned, but he was so far ahead on supply it didn't matter and eventually Alicia tapped out.  Game three (Polar Night) HyuN went for the double expo despite scouting gateway first; Alicia tickled the third with a few units, but pulled back as he lost a sentry and a bunch of probes at home with poor micro; Alicia finally attacked the third with some zealots/stalkers and the mothership core, but more bad micro lost the Protoss his army without accomplishing anything; doubled in supply Alicia locked himself down on two bases while HyuN got all the upgrades and complete map control; HyuN used drop and when his roach/ling army appeared in Alicia's main he tapped out immediately.  Alicia was badly outclassed this series, allowing HyuN complete freedom to macro and illustrating poor judgement overall.

Picon small.png Oz 3 Zicon small.png Revival 2

Surprisingly this was the best match of the day.  Game one (Alterzim) both players opened greedy with Oz going for early harass with his initial gateway units; Revival went quickly for swarm hosts as Oz pressured the third with his initial units; once the swarm hosts arrived Revival seiged the third with roach support; Oz pushed the units away quickly as he used forcefields to kill off all the roaches; Revival added corruptors to handle the inevitable colossi; Oz's warp prism went into the main and zealots ran rampant all over the main and natural while Revival's army was camped outside Oz's natural and fourth; Revival killed off all the colossus, but had nothing to stop the remaining blink stalkers from attacking the fourth--despite all the chaos Oz did not kill any of the bases, but took his own fourth as Revival was forced to pull back and defend; once the Protoss was pushed back Revival caught Oz's army out on the map and killed a lot of his forces; Revival killed the third while a stalker force killed the his fourth; Oz built void rays to help deal with the corruptors; Oz again went around the Zerg army with gateway units, pressuring the third; Revival had to pull drones to fight the stalkers as his swarm hosts attacked the fourth (now the third); Oz joined his forces and attacked the main; Revival brought back the corrupters, but had to pull them back against all the void rays; Oz killed the main and natural, leaving Revival only his fourth as Oz established a ninja third--Oz was more than double the supply of Revival who was barely mining and he tapped out when the Protoss army attacked his last base (this was a great game with lot's of changes in momentum).  Game two (Polar Night) Revival anticipated a cannon rush and took the third as his second base--and he was right as Oz went to cannon the natural which Revival simply ignored; Oz went for an immortal push as Revival used roaches to kill off the cannons; Revival sent his army to Oz's natural as an immortal drop hit the main and killed both the spawning pool and roach warren as he teched to blink; Revival added hydras to his composition, but Oz snipped the hydra den with the immortal drop; Oz moved out and Revival aimed for a surround, but Oz's forcefields prevented him from taking too much damage; Oz postured by the third, but went for the natural instead and pulling drones was not enough for forcing Revival to tap out (this was another great match, albeit one-sided).  Game three (Habitation Station) Oz went for forge fast expand again, which Revival scouted immediately and took the gold base before his natural; Oz went across the map with his stalker, zealot, and mothership core while taking the gold as his third; Revival sent slow lings into the gold, but other than being annoying they didn't do much damage; Revival went swarm host/roach again as Oz got colossus--roaches attacked the natural and swarm hosts the gold; warp prism harass died immediately to roach defence; Oz tried to take his army around the contain, but Revival was able to box him back in; Oz got around the second time and killed most of the roaches and his third, but lost all his colossus to corruptors; Revival built a billion roaches and killed the gold; Oz's harassment in the main didn't work, but zealots came close to killing the third; Oz added void rays which helped kill off corrupters as Revival built mutas and their appearance resulted in Oz tapping out (yet another good game, mirroring Alterzim).  Game four (Frost) Revival went spawning pool before hatch as Oz went nexus first and then into phoenix and a super early third base; Revival responded with hydras as Oz teched to colossus and blink; Oz did not have enough units to fight off Revival's first push and took a ton of damage, losing his third and winding up at half the Zerg supply; Revival maxed out with vipers in his army and rolled over Oz.  Game five (Heavy Rain) Oz went nexus first again and went for a two zealot/stalker/mothership core push which caused Revival to briefly abandon his third, but otherwise it didn't accomplish anything; Revival built a bunch of roaches and Oz ran into them and had to recall; the roaches attacked the natural, but didn't get much done as Revival added hydras; Oz built immortals, blink, and +2 which he used to take a third; Revival added swarm hosts as Oz added colossus; Revival lost some units out on the map as he began to add corruptors; with three colossi Oz was able to kill all the swarm hosts before losing them and then killed the third; the remaining massive stalker army was too much for Revival to overcome and he tapped out (yet another excellent game as Revival was ahead most of the way).  I'll say again: a great series well worth watching (only game's two and four were one-sided).

Predictions for the Final

Europe

Picon small.png MC vs Ticon small.png MMA

Aligulac gives MMA a slight edge (51%) and the two have split their offline/BO5 matches in HOTS (MMA won the last one); I don't have strong feelings either way so I'll lean on Aligulac (which has been excellent at predicting EU).

America

Zicon small.png HyuN vs Picon small.png Oz

Aligulac has HyuN as the overwhelming favourite (70%) and if Oz hadn't just beat Revival it would be a slam dunk for me, but maybe Oz can do something here.  Both players have had a chance to see the other in the relevant match-up so there should be no surprises, but one Oz win over a Zerg isn't enough to sway me so I'll give this to HyuN.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

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