The matches are set and it's time to dig through Aligulac and make predictions for who will wind up in the finals of WCS Europe and America. Predictions from the round of 8 struggled (3-5), particularly in NA (1-3) where all the Terrans lost--the region has been Aligulac's primary area of difficulty.
WCS Europe
MC
jjakji
Aligulac has jjakji as a heavy favourite (59%--the highest gap in the semi's on either side); jjakji has had the easiest road in WCS Europe, facing only foreigners until now. MC's record in the relevant match/circumstances is 8-6, with he and jjakji splitting their only two series. jjakji's record isn't much different (10-8), with middling results of late (2-4). It's as difficult to call as the one that follows, but I'll lean on MC as he won the only BO5 between them.
MMA San
The best two players remaining in the European bracket sadly have to play each other here. Aligulac gives San a slight edge (50%), who has a good record in the relevant match-up (7-4), including a win over MMA at ASUS ROG; he's also lost recently to Innovation and ForGG. On the other side, MMA lost back-to-back to Patience less than a week ago in similar circumstances, albeit not much is on the line at the Munich SC2 tournament; his overall track record is 8-7. It's a tough call, but I think San will pull through (I believe whichever player wins this series will win the final).
If my predictions are correct we'll have a PvP mirror San/MC final (Aligulac has jjakji/San).
WCS America
Alicia
Aligulac predicts HyuN (56%) to win it; Alicia has a good PvZ record against Koreans (7-1), but other than Revival the wins aren't over significant players; HyuN's track record is mixed (13-13; 2-7 lately), consistently losing to top Korean Protoss, but winning against others--so is Alicia in that top tier? I don't think he is, so HyuN moves on.
Oz
Aligulac gives Revival the slight edge (51%), which is far too conservative as Oz has been awful in PvZ against Koreans (particularly offline where he's 2-8, including a 0-4 drubbing by Revival back in July). Give this to the Zerg.
If Aligulac and I are correct it will be a ZvZ final between HyuN/Revival.
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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